Macroeconomic outlook

In July 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its growth forecast for the global economy noticeably once again and now expects global growth of just 3.2 %. This is 0.4 percentage points less than the figure stated in its April forecast. According to the IMF, the effects of inflation, China’s zero-Covid policy and the war in Ukraine were worse than feared. The economists believe that the global economy is heading for recession. For Europe, the numerous – often significant – downgrades since the start of the year reflect the impact of the war in Ukraine and a more restrictive monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the IMF anticipates weaker growth for global trade of 4.1 %.

Growth expectations for GDP 2022

Growth expectation in %

 

January

 

April

 

July

World

 

4.4

 

3.6

 

3.2

Advanced economies

 

3.9

 

3.3

 

2.5

USA

 

4.0

 

3.7

 

2.3

Emerging economies

 

4.8

 

3.8

 

3.6

China

 

4.8

 

4.4

 

3.3

Russia

 

2.8

 

- 8.5

 

- 6.0

Eurozone

 

3.9

 

2.8

 

2.6

Central and Eastern Europe (emerging European economies)

 

3.5

 

- 2.9

 

- 1.4

Germany

 

3.8

 

2.1

 

1.2

World trade

 

6.0

 

5.0

 

4.1

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2022